Gauging the 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates – Is there a legitimate contender?

Sometimes timing is everything. Last Thursday, I broached the idea of developing a list of potential Republican candidates to compete against President Obama in 2012 while gauging some of my Obama predictions from three years ago. Lo and behold, last Friday, nationally syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer weighed in with his “horserace” odds for the party of elephants. After a weekend to digest the scorecard, political watchdog Dick Morris chimed in with his analysis of Krauthammer’s odds – out of professional respect, of course.

But the prognosticating was not limited to the “inside the Beltway” bunch. Even “King of All Media” Howard Stern weighed in about his buddy Donald Trump for the benefit of his Sirius radio audience. Don’t underestimate Stern’s knowledge of politics. For the uninformed, he made a run for the New York governorship against Mario Cuomo in 1994. To the shock of many, he was well entrenched near the top of the leaderboard (as a Libertarian nonetheless!) before the question of personal finances came up. Stern refused to disclose his personal wealth and the momentum quickly faded.

There appears to be agreement on the cast of characters holding a hat in hand. For the sake of argument, and with deference to the professional politicos, here is one person’s opinion of the most likely Republican candidate to Rock the Red (sorry fellow Caps fans!) states.

Just for fun, I’ll even go as far as trying to pick the order of dropout.

First of all, here’s who we won’t see come New Hampshire time:

Donald Trump – as mentioned last week, I am with the group that sees Trump’s run as a publicity stunt. Stern agrees. “I know Donald. He’s not running...it’s a goof!” Admittedly, I find him fun to watch. But, I think Trump accomplished his mission on Wednesday by forcing Obama to hold a press conference to address the birth certificate issue. Speaking of which, how surreal was that??? I was waiting for the Andrew Shepherd moment… “Trump, your 15 minutes are up. My name is Barack Obama and I AM the President!” My guess is “the Donald” claims victory for the conservatives, continues to rant and rave for six more weeks, and then drops out -- not quietly, of course.

Sarah Palin – really, does anyone really see her running? I believe that her presidential aspirations ended the day she quit as governor of Alaska. Yes, quit. Then again, it may have been the day she realized that being paid to stump for others was easier than facing the fire herself. And paid well, indeed. Between the books, TV shows, and appearance fees, Mrs. Palin is poised to possibly earn about $50 million over the next eight years. The good part is, we don’t have to consider voting for her. Not that I was going to anyway. Her interview with Katie Couric spoke volumes without saying a whole lot except the VP candidate was quite obtuse.

Haley Barbour – just dropped out. I don’t know much about Barbour except that he was a well-liked Southern governor in the Clintonian sense. But, he’s not running anyway, so never mind.

Now, for the candidates, in the order they will drop out:

Ron Paul – saw him in the paper today considering a run, which means he probably believes the third time is the charm. It won’t be. Paul might not make it through New Hampshire.

Newt Gingrich – I would love to have Gingrich as a history professor. He is usually the brightest bulb in a room. But he is a retread of sorts. Back in 1993-94, the former House speaker enjoyed rock star status and enjoyed every second as the anti-Clinton. Then Clinton beat him at his own game over the government shutdown and the fire subsided. Between the fact that no one under 30 really knows who he is and his previous failures at marriage (a president should be a stable family man), I don’t think he has much of a chance and will be gone before his bus can get out of the Granite state.

Michelle Bachmann – since Palin has not declared herself to be a non-candidate, I don’t see Bachmann having enough time to build momentum after Palin bows out. They appeal to the same voters (Tea Party) which keeps them from being viable if they both run. I don’t know much about Bachmann either, and at this point I should know something without having to watch Fox News.

Mitch Daniels – former governor of Indiana. Good reputation and apparently no major flaws or scandals. Daniels is known for education work as governor, particularly with school choice. He is able to lead, as governorship is a good stepping stone to the White House (Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and G.W. Bush). I just don’t think he is well known enough and will have some fund raising trouble versus the more experienced campaign machines. But he’ll get a message out and leave a mark for later.

Tim Pawlenty – another former governor (Minnesota). Good reputation and the important Republican players seem to keep mentioning his name, so I think he outlasts Daniels and emerges from the fray as a VP candidate. Morris mentioned something about a Gov. Pawlenty plan enabling Muslims to buy interest-free homes as a liability. I’d like to hear more about. Honestly, I can’t pick him out of a lineup…yet.

Top Two

Mike Huckabee – in 2006, I was attending a Bishop Ireton/St.Mary's Academy High School homecoming with the 25^th reunion (class before mine) being hosted by SMA alumna Kirsten Fedewa. Kirsten has worked on Capitol Hill as a lobbyist and also in politician’s offices, but her business these days has expanded beyond politics. However, five years ago, she had one focus. “I’m working for Mike Huckabee.” My first (and second and third) response was “Who?”  Reply - “The Governor of Arkansas...I’m working on his presidential campaign.” The “Who?” was followed by “What?” Actually, Kirsten was handling his press and public relations in the D.C. area among other things. She must know her stuff as millions learned about the Arkansas minister turned governor.

I like Huckabee. His show might be the only one I watch on Fox. He is honest and wholesome and plays the bass! He was the governor of Arkansas and begins front office experience to the race. His surprise showing in 2008 shows an ability to appeal to the masses and his show of humility on Saturday Night Live’s “Weekend Update” was priceless. “Governor Huckabee, you know that you have been mathematically eliminated from the race?”… “Oh.”

Barbour’s departure opens up the South for Huckabee.

Mitt Romney – another experienced campaign veteran. Former governor of Massachusetts. Some complain about his failed health care plan in the Bay State, but it’s better to learn from one’s mistake as governor than on Pennsylvania Ave. Devout Mormon. I don’t see his religion being a negative among centrists. I see many others concentrating on his role as a family man.

Also, Romney is appealing because of his vast wealth. A candidate who gives the appearance of invincibility when it comes to needing money always draws attention. It’s hard to dislike a candidate willing to invest tens (probably hundreds if he lasts long enough) of millions of his own money into a campaign. He can wait out the pretenders.

Romney has seen and done it. Back in 2008, there was a prevailing feeling that it was McCain’s turn. Give the war hero and long-time Senator a chance. There is no sentimental favorite this time.

My hunch is that these two will duke it out through the second half of the campaign season and one will emerge as the candidate. I’d give Romney the slightest of nudges.

Who do I think will win the general election in 2012? Stay tuned.