Obama in 2011 - How Does My Prediction from 2008 Look?

A little over two years ago, Helium.com, a writing web site that I am a proud member of, posed a question to its aspiring writers. Barack Obama was not yet president, but had just been elected. The question presented was, “What do you think will happen during a President Obama administration? What will the world be like in four years?” Sorry, that’s two questions.

Last week, the White House announced that President Obama is now in campaign mode. I’m bothered by this news. First of all, he spent more than half of his Senate career running for President; now it appears that he will spend almost half of his first term running for re-election. One may beg to disagree, but do the math. After twenty-six months of a 48 month term, the hat is back in the ring and the fundraisers are a go.

Perhaps it’s a sign of the times. But, I think the President is getting back to what he does best, which is communicating with Americans. He inherited a huge mess, but as time goes on, the blame for the mess has now transferred to him. He needs to get out and remind people why they voted for him in 2008, so yes, posting a bid for re-election will work for Obama.

Most knowledgeable people realized that one person was not going to shake up the entire way things are done in Washington. The Founding Fathers took care of that with the system of “checks and balances.” Those that did believe in the myth have now processed the Kool-Aid and are either going back for seconds or switching to tea.

But all said, I’m sure our president is trying. My angst over the re-election announcement comes from my belief that there is really no formidable competition. No Democrat has emerged and probably won’t as the bold act of challenging the incumbent usually becomes the kiss of death to the  party in the White House (think Kennedy vs. Carter in 1980 or Buchanan et al vs. George H.W. Bush  in 1992). Obama is safe within his own party.

How about the Republicans? I’m not seeing any challenge yet. Let’s look at the cast of characters. Actually, I’d like to do that for next Thursday.

But, I will add this. The biggest noise from the Republicans this week is coming from Donald Trump. This alone should prove my theory about no real competition.

I have another theory about why this has happened. First of all, it's hard to imagine that Trump is a serious candidate. The job doesn’t pay enough and his “art of the deal” doesn’t play well among political types.

So why run? PUBLICITY! As we know, the real estate market is in a massive slump. Does anyone remember what happened the last time the market headed south? Trump almost went broke. Here’s the irony. He was so far underwater that his creditors (billionaire owing lots of folks money?) could not just write him off. They had to partner up and work with “The Donald” in order to save their own behinds. By being broke, Trump managed sweetheart agreements and kept most of his companies in tact. Savvy business move.

But this is 2011. Are we to believe that his numerous properties are not devaluing like everything else out there? When a business is in trouble, the solution is to sell the brand. With Trump, he IS the brand. I heard him today bragging that he was worth $7 billion dollars. Either he’s lying (which would make him a politician!) or he was worth $10 billion three years ago. Just something to think about...

And now for my Obama prediction from late 2008. You will have to trust that I did not touch this. I am happy about the Hillary Clinton prediction, as well as the Dow at 12,000. Stay tuned for the $1.1 billion for the re-election campaign. White House has already said $1 billion. McCain in defense hasn’t happened and the five percent unemployment is laughable. Way off on the 2010 Congressional prediction.  I’ll save any comments about the Palin/Jindal 2012 ticket for next week.

Here it is:

November 30, 2008

It's 2012, decision time again: Did President Barack Obama live up to his great promise? Even in 2012, the Internet continues to amaze me. Four years ago, Americans proved to the world that we were worldly, and elected a true Renaissance man as President. Back then, we laughed at the Verizon television commercials suggesting that a cell phone user would be followed by thousands of people from the network. As it turned out, the network could not only hear us, but reach back to us as well.

Obama entered office with his own army of three million Internet users, poised and ready to act on the new president's call. The same mass of keypunchers who helped Obama in the 2008 election also proved to be better than any lobbyist group on K Street. Thanks to modern technology and dreaded cookies on computers, Big Brother became more than George Orwell's vision of the future; it turned into part of our daily existence. I cannot fault Obama for this new twist in our democratic process. As it turned out, he put together a great Cabinet, and in the spirit of good government, brought Republicans and Democrats together in a way we have not seen in our lifetimes. Hillary Clinton proved to be an effective world leader as Secretary of State, and John McCain proved to be a great Secretary of Defense after finishing his Senate term. President Obama did a very smart thing in properly delegating military and foreign affairs to others while he concentrated on the American economy.

As the president prepares for his re-election against the Palin/Jindal ticket, I think that he is in for a tough fight to reclaim his seat at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., but some signs are favorable. The economy made a turn upward, but did not quite reach expected numbers. The Dow index hovers around 12,000, and it is safe to invest in stocks again, particularly with utilities, health care companies, and Wal-Mart. Unemployment is at five percent, as many Americans have found jobs. Still, many other Americans choose to live from the benefits of the social programs reinstated in the past four years, in spite of Obama's strong rhetorical pleas for those individuals to get jobs. Free health care is easier to find for those who need it, but universal care remains an unforeseeable happening. Although the 2010 congressional elections added six more representatives and two senators to the Democratic side, the filibuster proof Democrat-run Congress fell a bit short, as the Republicans pulled all of their resources together to hold on to needed seats.

How did the Republicans manage to hold a relative measure of power? Essentially, there was a backlash as Americans became tired of the requests for help and money from the army of Obama networkers. Whether the pleas came by e-mail or door-to-door canvassing, the privacy that many wish for was interrupted over the past four years. There was a benefit for the President as the network did raise $1.1 billion for the Obama 2012 re-election campaign.

President Obama has done an admirable job living up to his great promise. I am sure that his gray hair is a testament to his effort. However, as re-election looms in the near future, Obama has come to realize how great the obstacles are. He is making progress and should win re-election. As Americans, this will mean hunkering down for the next wave of communications from the network. Yes, we can hear you now. Good.

Of course, comments are welcome, especially since we’ll be back on this topic next week. Have a wonderful weekend!